European Commission: Climate Policy Post-Copenhagen

The European Commission released a report on how to move forward after Copenhagen. It is a fairly uninteresting report, with no major surprises. The things we found interesting are:
1) ...the Bonn meeting should bring the developed country targets and developing country actions submitted under the Accord into the formal UN negotiating process.
2) The EU's objective for Cancun should therefore be a comprehensive and balanced set of decisions to anchor the Copenhagen Accord in the UN negotiating process, and to address the gaps. There should also be a formal decision on the listing of developed country targets and the registration of developing country actions, including the methods to account for these. All the decisions should come under an "umbrella" decision to provide the overall political framework.
3) Very little mention of REDD in the 12 page document, despite REDD+ having its own mechanism in the Accord as well as a meaningful SBSTA decision.
4) The Commission will assess the merits and drawbacks of alternative legal forms, including of a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol.
5) Among the most difficult negotiations in Copenhagen were those on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV). Transparency is key to ensure mutual trust and demonstrate the effectiveness and adequacy of targets and actions. The Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto Protocol provide basic standards of MRV, through national communications and inventories. The Copenhagen Accord requires the strengthening of this system. This must be one of the priorities in the work to anchor the compromises in the Copenhagen Accord in the UN process.

The full title of the report is:
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
International climate policy post-Copenhagen: Acting now to reinvigorate global action on climate change
{SEC(2010) 261}

For 2010, let's forgive, move on, and reform the UNFCCC

The article by Grist's Geoffrey Lean hyperlinked in the blog title covers the accusations and finger pointing following the mayhemic Copenhagen talks. Every seems to be playing the blame game, even before the impact of COP15 is still unknown.

The ultimate negotiations on climate change are probably yet to come. What is clear is that the UNFCCC process, with six separate "tracks" and more than 190 countries (not to mention the new escalated antics of everyone else) needing to find consensus on every single piece, is simply not going to work in the future. Things will get even hairier as the framework takes place (next year to two) and the bare bone technical details and rules have to get put in place to support any new framework.

It is worth noting that after the Kyoto Protocol was "built" in 1997, it took until 2002 before the rulebook started to crystalize. So if we fast forward to a broad deal in Mexico (maybe 50:50) then look for a frantic fight on every major detail to get filled in before the expiration of the KP on New Years day in 2013. The UNFCCC even with the best staff, simply won't be able to mange the accelerated process of rules and regulations in just two years (2011 and 2012). Whoops, I forgot. The world will also probably need several months or years to ratify any international agreement in domestic processes. Which means the pace of climate change negotiations is probably not going to slow down any time soon. Book your tickets now for Bonn and Mexico City!

Simply, time is running out. The Copenhagen accords are messy and no one is sure where they will go, but there is some new potential there as well as some blatant omissions. And for the community of nations to have a continual UN process for handling climate change, we need reform to the UNFCCC process no matter how you slice and dice the coming years. Beyond the text and the interpretations and the recriminations, COP15 will hopefully be remembered for starting to change the rules away from a binary world of rich and poor and for demanding the wonderful, incredibly competent UNFCCC must get a tune up. The sooner the better.

Happy New Year TFG blog readers!

Plan to protect forests suffers set back in Copenhagen

Rhett Butler's Mongabay article summarizing REDD in Copenhagen is hyperlinked in the title.

"The one issue that can unite governments and constituencies... is massive new incentives to arrest deforestation at scale in developing countries," said Niles. "This single positive will probably need to carry the day when a real binding and ambitious accord will eventually be drawn, sometime in the next 18 months."

US annnounces $1 billion for tropical forests

at the avoided deforstation partners meeting a few hours ago, US Secretary of Agriculture announced §1 billion in funding for tropical forests. this is a major development on its own and may help facilitate negotiations on the agreement being worked out in the Bella Center where up to 140 heads of state are expected to sign a new climate change accord. At the first high level segment of the plenary yesterday, UN Secretary General called for more money and finance on the table for developing countries. TFG believes that if enough new funds for sustainable development can be collected, then removing the brackets around the agreement can start to be removed. The meeting also included several Heads of State (Guyana and Norway, which recently announced a major new fund to help Guyana to help conserve tropical forests), Jane Goodall, founder of Google Earth )announcing . The next meeting, the redd gala, starts in a few minutes. Here, we are likely to see other governments step forward with specific new funds for rainforests. If the developed world comes forward with more resources in the next few hours and days, chances for an overall agreement will greatly increase.

It was difficult to get to the meetings. As we left the Bella Center this morning, a large riot had just swept through and I literally was helped to get out by police who lifted me over a barricade of security vehicles. the metro was filled with many anarchists and other rowdies. Helicopters were in the air, the streets are filled with sirens as dignitaries move about and arrive and protestors block streets. there were rumors that some NGOs broke into backroom talks and other rumors that there was a bomb scare in the main station.

despite that all, the pieces are finally falling into place. Stay tuned for more announcements.

Copenhagen climate summit negotiations 'suspended'

Talks ground to a halt here in Copenhagen, sending the entire circus into suspended animation. G77 finally the bluff of wealthy nations. Stay tuned.

Governor Blairo Maggi of Matto Gross COP 15 REDD comments

Mato Grosso Governor blog/paraphrase from WHRC dinner
Blairo Maggi
(heavily paraphrased due to translation and speed of delivery)
I am the governor of the state that is the largest produce of grain, beef and cotton in Brazil.

34% devoted to production
66% devoted to conservation.

This is the stew in which we are working – how doe we keep forets standing, how do we produce, supply food to a growing world and provide communities with decent lives (heavily paraphrased) . With the advance of technology from many government agencies, we can triple production without clearing more forests.

We can give the farmers and ranchers in the state that if they continue to increase productivity, they can still grow and expand but not with cutting more forests.

But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It is called REDD. Van provide people of the state compensation for keeping forests standing while still having a productive economy.

It is not just about production, It is also local and indigenous peoples land and rights. Matto Grosso has everything in place to put a major solution to GHG into action.

There will be x governors tomororw. They all want REDD to work. it is like a big ship coming into the port. We must construct REDD so that funds will flow and the benefits can be distributed, For now, our main job is to make sure REDD works. We must build into REDD public funds, there has to be additional funding for state governments to do their job, and without this,it won't get done. Thank you.

Obama's Science Advisor says REDD important

Blogging from the Woods Hole Research Center/IPAM dinner at COP15

John Holdren speech before a dinner (the Customs House, Copenhagen)
paraphrased quotes only.

The President understands with great clarity the challenges of climate change and tropical forests.

And he understands we have a great opportunity. He knows REDD provides some of the greatest opportunities to get lots of early carbon emission reductions.

I have spoken with the president at length on climate change and the issue of REDD.The US will play its appropriate role. There have been some bumps in the negotiations. There always are. But we will move to a better outcome.

Europe Pledges Billions for Climate Aid for Poor Nations

Obama moves trip to COP15 second week

President Barack Obama is pushing back his trip to Copenhagen in order to be at the international climate talks during the critical negotiating period, reports Politico.com

U.S. Will Propose Near-Term Emissions Cuts in...Days

By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: November 23, 2009

WASHINGTON — The United States will propose a near-term target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before the United Nations climate change meeting in Copenhagen next month, a senior administration official said Monday. President Obama, the official said, will announce the specific target “in coming days.”

Ethiopia PM: World Not Serious On Climate Change

Aid workers say a five-year drought, worsened by climate change, is afflicting some 23 million people in seven east African nations, with Ethiopia worst affected.

Meles has become Africa's most outspoken leader on climate change and has argued that European pollution may have caused his country's ruinous 1984 famine.

Reuters, Author: Barry Malone

Breaking News - Brazil will support REDD with conditions

This is a major development in the world of climate change and tropical forests. Brazil has long opposed REDD-like credits for reductions in deforestation. This evolution in a negotiating position suggests that if the talks at large can succeed, REDD will also happen. There are no other nations with such clout that remain opposed to REDD. This. Is. Mega.

Excellent Ecosystem Marketplace article on REDD status

Old Issues Stagger REDD in End Game
by Unna Chokkalingam

Ecosystem Marketplace covers the latest breaking news on the text of REDD+ for Copenhagen. This is must reading for anyone following the talks closely.

Copyright © 2009, The Ecosystem Marketplace, http://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com

IPCC Pachauri hints at possible deforestation deal

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in a Reuters article, says talks in Copenhagen will likely go to the wire. That is obvious. Any possible deal will come late in the evening of December 18th, but even more likely in the early morning hours of the 19th.

What was most interesting about his interview was the notion that...

"Apart from possible deals on emission cuts by rich nations and finance for actions by developing countries to fight global warming, Pachauri said the world could also ink a pact to avoid deforestation.".

Given that REDD is far advanced ahead of other sectors in the UNFCCC process, given that international forest carbon is a major component of both House and Senate US legislation, and given the Governor's Climate Summits have a separate track for climate and forests, a deforestation deal would be the natural item that governments should be able to get across the line. The question is whether you can have a mechanism that uses carbon markets to arrest deforestation if the carbon markets themselves are not solved.

The original article is hyper-linked in the blog title.

new reordered/consolidtaed text from UNFCCC

The UNFCCC secretariat has released the latest version of the text for a Copenhagen agreement (hyperlink in title). No new surprises, and it is still clocking in at av overweight 188 pages. The information on REDD is primarily (not only though) found 106-115.

Sobering commentary by J. Drexhage at IISD

The piece is well worth reading. It begins ominously and doesn't get lighter...
"We are at the precipice of what is supposed to be a landmark global decision on climate change at Copenhagen in less than 16 weeks, and yet anyone with his or her eyes open cannot help but come to the conclusion that we are in seriously dire circumstances."

Intense and important meetings start at State Department

For those of us who are prognosticating on the likelihood of a Copenhagen deal, the place to be is C Street in DC (that is where the State Department is). If the major emitters can hash something out, there is still hope for a deal. If this group can not produce something tangible by the end of next week, when the G20 meetings are held in Pittsburgh, then he likelihood of a Copenhagen deal goes down to extremely tiny.

Good Grist.org article on Copenhagen (100 things...)

This article has lots of good tidbits for anyone planning to go to Copenhagen or just following the talks.

In the article you'll find some good policy links (to good critical coverage of the politics behind the scenes) and absurdities (it is OK for women to swim topless in pools in Copenhagen, there is no plan yet to deal with a swine flu outbreak at the talks). Perhaps most frightening....? #19 according to the list says there will only be about one hour of sunlight per day during the talks.

TFG will be sending a COP15 delegation of about 25 people, mostly volunteer scientists and policy advocates. At latest count, our team will be coming from 8 countries, speaking probably 15 languages.

revised UNFCCC negotiating text for Copenhagen

The UNFCCC has released the latest 199 page negotiating text (hyperlinked in title). This text follows from the Bonn climate change talks and is crucial to the UNFCCC process, since there are provisions with the Framework Convention on Climate Change that require a 6 month notice of proposed amendments to the Convention. With Copenhagen now less than 6 months away, this 200 page hodge-podge of ideas (plus other submissions by Parties) will be the mud from which a new agreement must be drafted.

TFG has yet to go through the latest version for key REDD language, but we will soon and will report back here.

Greenpeace Fake Newspaper: Funny & Wrong on REDD

Greenpeace, the global Juggernaut of NGOs, produced a funny faux version of the Euro-popular International Herald Tribune (IHT) for European leaders gathering in Brussels to discuss climate change.

The main link is here:
http://iht.greenpeace.org/

(The IHT has apparently asked Greenpeace to remove the "fake pages" so this link may not be up for long...)

In this imaginary version of the IHT, Greenpeace reports on a Pretend Copenhagen Agreement (complete with France abandoning nuclear power and ExxonMobil converting all to renewable). As far as shock value and humor go, this is clearly a winner.

If you look at their upper left hand button "Historic Win for Amazon Protection", it'll take you to an article about REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries).

In the Greenpeace pretend world, a new "fund" is miraculously created by negotiators in Copenhagen to fund reductions in deforestation. Greenpeace slams the use of carbon credits for forests. This is a view Greenpeace has held for more than a decade.

Luckily, many do not agree with this viewpoint. Many countries, local communities, states and provinces and environmentalists see carbon credits as an imperfect, but critically important new tool to save tropical forests. This is because miraculous new funds for saving tropical forests just don't seem to be catching on like they used to...Norway being the exception.

Luckily, real negotiators in the real world are heading toward a real treaty where there are likely to be new funds AND carbon credits for nations that reign in deforestation. Funds are great, bring 'em on! But for real, sustained financing (decades, at many billions of dollars per year) tied to actual reductions in deforestation (unlike funds), carbon credits are an important solution that this planet cannot afford to ignore.

For more information, check out one of our older blogs here:

http://tropicalforestgroup.blogspot.com/2009/04/greenpeace-slams-redd-claims-it-will.html.